Why A Quick Begin Might Be Key For Medvedev’s US Open Title Probabilities

As soon as Daniil Medvedev has management, he not often relinquishes it.

In 2023, the World No. 3 has misplaced simply as soon as in 48 tour-level matches by which he has received the primary set. Adrian Mannarino’s 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 second-round victory in ‘s-Hertogenbosch in June makes the Frenchman the one proprietor of a comeback victory towards Medvedev this season.

Medvedev’s masterclass in frontrunning just isn’t a brand new development, both. He’s now 272-28 throughout his profession after successful the opening set. These statistics from Infosys ATP Stats counsel the 27-year-old will take an enormous step in the direction of his second main title by beginning quick towards Novak Djokovic in Sunday’s US Open championship match.


Highest Win Share After Profitable First Set, 2023

Participant W-L Win %
Daniil Medvedev 47-1  97.9
Stefanos Tsitsipas 35-1  97.2
Lorenzo Musetti 23-1  95.8
Novak Djokovic 38-2  95

A take a look at Medvedev’s earlier victories towards Djokovic additionally suggests the opening set could possibly be essential. 4 of his 5 Lexus ATP Head2Head victories towards the Serbian got here after he received the primary set, together with his solely comeback victory coming within the pair’s Cincinnati semi-final in 2019.

Nevertheless, there are additionally fewer opponents who’re more likely to be much less bothered by such numbers than 23-time Grand Slam titlist Djokovic, famend for his capability to grab victory from the jaws of defeat and particularly with regards to five-set battles on the majors.

The Serbian has been virtually as succesful a frontrunner as Medvedev this yr (he’s 38-2 in 2023 after successful the opening set), and the numbers additionally point out Djokovic doesn’t rely as closely on a quick begin as his championship-match opponent. Medvedev is 8-10 this season after dropping the opening set, whereas Djokovic by comparability is 6-3.

So the primary field for Medvedev to tick when he steps out on Arthur Ashe Stadium? Begin quick and take the opening set. The second? To place his foot down and don’t look again… Identical to he did in his straight-sets victory towards the Serbian within the 2021 closing at Flushing Meadows.

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