After a membership file 14-game successful run in all competitions, together with eight victories in LaLiga, Atletico Madrid are Spain’s ‘winter champions’, the unofficial and in the end insignificant title handed out to the league leaders on the halfway level.
The one title that actually issues, is the one that’s determined in Might, but this race already feels prefer it has had sufficient main shifts to fill a full season. Following their defeat at Betis in late October, an unconvincing Atleti had been already 10 factors behind Hansi Flick’s resurgent Barcelona who seemed like they could run away with LaLiga 2024/25.
Simply eight video games on, an enormous 16 level swing has taken place from Barca to Atleti, utterly reworking the image on the high of the desk.
State of play on the high after 19 video games
| Objectives Scored | Objectives In opposition to | Factors | ||
| 1st | Atletico Madrid | 34 | 12 | 44 |
| 2nd | Actual Madrid | 43 | 19 | 43 |
| third | Barcelona | 51 | 22 | 38 |
| 4th | Athletic Membership | 29 | 17 | 36 |
| fifth | Villarreal | 34 | 31 | 30 |
| sixth | Mallorca | 19 | 21 | 30 |
Atletico Madrid paved the way, with a mean of two.32 factors per recreation, ample to win LaLiga in 5 of the final six seasons. Their components has been pretty typical of their stronger league campaigns through the Diego Simeone period, with one of the best defensive file, however a much less potent assault than their two primary rivals.
Actual Madrid are solely a degree behind their neighbours, with six wins from their final eight within the league making certain they’ve additionally gained a major benefit on Barcelona, in a significant plot twist following their 4-0 dwelling Clasico defeat in October.
Three straight dwelling defeats for Barcelona have carried out immense injury to their title prospects they usually’ve now suffered 5 league losses general, two greater than Athletic Membership who’re solely two factors additional again in 4th place.
Whereas the Basques are in touching distance of the highest three and stay a dominant power at dwelling, it’s onerous to see them as a critical title contenders with eight factors already separating them from high spot. Making an attempt to safe a high 4 end and the prospect of a dream Europa League remaining at San Mames would be the main objectives for Ernesto Valverde’s aspect over the second half of the marketing campaign.
The highest three – What are their key strengths & weaknesses?
Completely rational arguments for why every of the present high three will win LaLiga will be made, but every of the edges have flaws and sure vulnerabilities that would show to be their undoing.
That needs to be the recipe for an enchanting title race, not least with Atletico Madrid, on paper the least possible winner, at the moment holding the benefit on the high.
Atletico Madrid
The case for Atleti successful their third title underneath Simeone
After an unconvincing begin the place he chopped and adjusted seemingly each weekend, Simeone has found a successful components and he has actually doubled down on a 4-4-2 system with 9 or ten gamers at the moment locked into his finest eleven.
That readability when it comes to workforce choice, with the likes of Javi Galan, Clement Lenglet and Giuliano Simeone considerably surprisingly breaking into the beginning lineup, has created a scenario the place it seems like Atleti might have extra depth than their two rivals.
Koke, Marcos Llorente and Samuel Lino had been amongst those that might solely make the bench final day trip in opposition to Osasuna. Atleti’s depth is probably finest summed up by the truth that their high scorer will not be Antoine Griezmann or Julian Alvarez, however Alexander Sorloth who has scored eight LaLiga objectives at a price of 1 each 97 minutes, regardless of solely beginning 37% of his workforce’s matches.
In essentially the most congested season in latest occasions, with an expanded Champions League schedule, that squad depth might show very important as Los Rojiblancos goal their first title because the pandemic-affected 2020/21 season.
Areas of concern
A big harm to Griezmann continues to be maybe the doomsday situation for Simeone, with the Frenchman nonetheless the supply of a lot that’s good about their attacking play.
It’s additionally nonetheless largely true that Atletico’s beginning eleven will not be blessed with as a lot uncooked high quality as these of their title rivals. They’re having to scrap for each level, notably on the street the place they’ve solely gained one league match by greater than a single purpose.
The concern may also be that they proceed to attract extra video games than Barca and Actual Madrid, and wrestle to go the gap ought to a type of two actually discover their groove and begin blowing groups away on a constant foundation.
Actual Madrid
The case for Actual Madrid defending their crown
This has not been a convincing first half of the season from Actual Madrid. Accidents have left them wanting shaky on the again, whereas Kylian Mbappe has not been the transformational signing that they thought they had been getting, together with his presence additionally at occasions resulting in an unbalanced really feel to Carlo Ancelotti’s aspect.
But, regardless of all that, they’re solely a degree off the highest of LaLiga on the halfway level and Madridistas can definitely take some encouragement from that. Mbappe has seemed a lot sharper in latest weeks and with Jude Bellingham additionally coming into kind, there’s a sense that the person high quality on this Madrid aspect, which is packed stuffed with world class attacking gamers, will show an excessive amount of for just about all of their home rivals, even when a few of these structural points stay.
Areas of concern
With solely 9 factors on the board within the Champions League, Actual Madrid appear like they might want to play the additional play-off spherical in that competitors, whereas definitely Barcelona and doubtlessly Atletico Madrid ought to progress straight into the round-of-16. That would go away Los Blancos needing to play as many 11 UCL fixtures earlier than the season ends which can be a major pressure on a squad that already has holes in it.
The primary holes are clearly in defence. Dani Carvajal’s harm has created a giant downside at right-back, with Lucas Vazquez incessantly caught out in latest video games and unlikely to be able to enjoying each match on the age of 33 in any case. For the second season working, they’re additionally brief on central defensive choices following one other ACL harm for Eder Militao, whereas doubts linger about what form David Alaba is in after a yr out.
On condition that Actual Madrid are at all times reluctant to spend cash in January, it could be that these points stay even after the switch window shuts. Judging by a few of their latest defensive shows, most notably the 5-2 capitulation within the Supercopa remaining in opposition to Barca, a dodgy defence might derail their bid for silverware this season.
Barcelona
The case for Flick’s aspect reigning in Spain
When they’re good, Flick’s Barcelona are excellent. They’ve already shocked Actual Madrid twice this season with dominant wins, with their 4-1 Champions League victory over Bayern Munich additionally suggesting it is a Barca workforce that’s now able to mixing it with the perfect.
The winter break was a lot wanted so far as a lot of their gamers had been involved, and we’ve definitely seen the Catalans return wanting sharper and again on the ranges we noticed through the begin to the season once they gained 11 out of 12 in LaLiga.
Flick was reluctant to relaxation gamers throughout that interval, not less than partially as a consequence of accidents for the likes of Gavi, Frenkie de Jong, Ronald Araujo and Ferran Torres. Nonetheless, most of these points have now cleared up, and it seems like Barca needs to be in fine condition to go on one other successful run in LaLiga, with their boss now in a a lot stronger place to relaxation gamers once they want a breather.
Assuming they don’t must cope with one other important harm disaster, a free-scoring Barca aspect should get again on monitor shortly in LaLiga and if they’ll rediscover their early season kind, they’re greater than able to closing the hole on the 2 sides above them.
Areas of concern
Whereas Barcelona have had loads of pleasure in opposition to the stronger groups which have tried to assault them, a development has emerged over the previous couple of months, with defensively minded groups denying them house and stifling their normally fluid assault.
Las Palmas, Leganes and Atleti all gained on the Estadi Olimpic on the back-end of 2024 using comparatively related techniques. Whereas these sides additionally benefited from a component of excellent fortune, Flick wants to search out some options when confronted with these sorts of opponents, in any other case Barca’s title problem might be over earlier than it has actually received going.
A file of 4 defeats from 5 league matches when Lamine Yamal hasn’t began can be onerous to disregard. Their dependance on the 17-year-old for attacking inspiration already feels too nice they usually can unwell afford to lose the winger for any size of time.
There’s additionally nonetheless some concern concerning the goalkeeping scenario, with primary Marc-Andre ter Stegen dominated out, doubtlessly for the remainder of the season. Wojciech Szczesny seemed unconvincing within the Supercopa, with Iñaki Peña anticipated to proceed in purpose. The 25-year-old has carried out a fairly good job of filling in for the German, however not everyone seems to be satisfied by him and the stress shall be on Peña to carry out as Barcelona’s schedule heats up over the approaching months.
How may issues develop over the following few months?
In Barca’s case, almost a month has handed since their final league recreation, a 2-1 defeat to Atletico Madrid in December. It has definitely been a barely irregular interval, with the winter break and home cup distractions, however a way of normality returns this coming weekend.
The highest three are all in motion and they’ll every play as soon as in LaLiga over the following 9 weekends, earlier than the worldwide break arrives with either side having solely 10 matches left to play. This part within the season gained’t decide the future of the race, however it can inform us a lot concerning the title credentials of every of the three primary contenders.
Given their poor league kind, and the present standings, Barcelona are the aspect underneath essentially the most stress heading into matchday 20, but perversely, they need to be feeling excellent about themselves after their 5 star displaying within the Supercopa remaining.
None of their subsequent six league fixtures are in opposition to high eight sides. In idea, that serves up an excellent alternative for Flick’s males to get again on monitor and shut the hole on the Madrid golf equipment, but a few of their latest outcomes in opposition to struggling sides recommend that’s no certainty.
This weekend’s journey to Getafe seems like a extremely important recreation. They are going to know what to anticipate on the Coliseum, a floor they haven’t even scored on within the 2020’s, with the entire final three conferences ending goalless. With Pepe Bordalas’ aspect boasting the third finest defensive file in LaLiga, it’s more likely to be simply as tight this yr, however seeing off cautious opponents at a bogey floor might show to be a significant turning level in Barca’s league marketing campaign if they’ll get the win.
Atletico Madrid must face their two primary title rivals earlier than the March worldwide break which instantly follows their showdown with Barca on the Estadio Metropolitano. Additionally they go to the Santiago Bernabeu for the Madrid derby in February and people outcomes can have a huge impact on how the desk seems with 10 to play.
Nonetheless, even had been they to drop factors in each, Atleti’s different fixtures are beneficial sufficient over the following couple of months, with 5 of their subsequent 9 at dwelling, to recommend they’ll nonetheless be firmly within the race come the enterprise finish of the marketing campaign.
As for Actual Madrid, they’ll again themselves to take most factors from their subsequent three matches in opposition to Las Palmas, Espanyol and Actual Valladolid. Then comes the derby with Atleti, and a chance for Ancelotti’s aspect to place themselves in pole place for just about the primary time this season.
Journeys to Osasuna, Betis and Villarreal earlier than the break in March are more likely to be show difficult although, and this subsequent chunk of the season seems like one which will serve up a number of extra twists on the high, with out leaving any robust clues as to which workforce will in the end find yourself with their arms on the trophy.
All issues level in direction of a three-horse title race that has the potential to grow to be an all-time traditional.
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