Performed 50, gained 2. That’s the mixed report of Almeria and Granada this season in LaLiga. Maybe then, it must be no shock that their weekend assembly at Los Carmenes, successfully a “should win” for each groups, resulted in a draw.
Each look to be on target for a return to the Segunda Division, in Granada’s case an instantaneous one whereas that is solely Almeria’s second season again within the high flight after successful a promotion in 2022 amidst a wave of optimism that they could even turn out to be a real, new drive in Spanish soccer beneath rich Saudi proprietor Turki Alalshikh.
That dream has fallen solely flat this season with Almeria nonetheless winless with solely 13 video games to go and at risk of breaking every kind of undesirable information.
But the curious factor is, Almeria and to an extent Granada, have at instances this season performed genuinely fairly effectively with each giving groups close to the highest of the desk an actual fright in latest months.
Are Granada and Almeria actually that unhealthy?
Either side had some pretty apparent flaws from day one this season, so it’s no shock that each Granada and Almeria are concerned within the relegation scrap. Nonetheless it’s onerous to fathom simply why they’ve so few factors and discover themselves in such depressing positions in a league that incorporates a lot of different golf equipment with related sources, aspirations and squads that on paper will not be considerably superior.
Granada got here up as Segunda Division champions, together with Alaves and Las Palmas final 12 months. They’ve really scored extra objectives than each of these sides this season, however discover themselves with 14 fewer factors than Alaves and 21 fewer than Las Palmas.
Almeria in the meantime survived within the remaining minutes of a dramatic remaining day final time period when a powerful dwelling report was nearly solely chargeable for their survival. A summer season of change noticed Rubi depart and Vicente Moreno arrive to work with a bunch of recent signings, however a disastrous begin set the tone for a disastrous season.
To a big extent, either side have been on an analogous journey this time period. Extreme defensive deficiencies led to their early issues. Almeria and Granada made up the underside two by the tip of matchday six and that has remained the case ever since.
The pure, though not essentially appropriate, factor for a struggling workforce that’s conceding too many objectives to do is to hunt out a extra defensively minded coach. Each did simply that with Gaizka Garitano taking up on the Energy Horse Stadium in early October whereas Alexander Medina changed Paco Lopez at Granada in November.
Each have struggled to show the tide of unhealthy outcomes, though efficiency ranges have for probably the most half elevated in latest months.
Almeria have had a lot of practically moments of their pursuit of that elusive league victory, curiously usually in opposition to the perfect sides. They twice equalised away to Barcelona in December, solely to lose 3-2. They have been 2-0 up at Actual Madrid in January, however misplaced 3-2 on the dying. Only a week earlier, they’d performed then leaders Girona off the park, creating a bunch of fine possibilities in a goalless draw.
Granada went even nearer to successful in Barcelona earlier this month, surrendering 2-1 and 3-2 leads to attract 3-3. Aided by some helpful January additions, they’ve seemed a bit extra assured however have failed to actually construct on a very spectacular efficiency within the first recreation of 2024 after they have been completely dominant in a house win over Cadiz.
The stats that counsel LaLiga’s “worst ever workforce” shouldn’t even be within the relegation zone
Almeria at present common simply 0.32 factors per recreation which leaves them on target to interrupt the report of Sporting Gijon (0.34 factors per recreation in 1997/98) as statistically the worst workforce within the historical past of the Spanish high flight.
But bizarrely, in accordance with Anticipated Objectives information from FBREF, they aren’t even one of many worst three sides this season with their xG Distinction of -9.3, solely the fifth worst within the division. In the meantime their xG complete of 33.0 is definitely the seventh finest report in LaLiga, inserting them above sides like Actual Sociedad and Actual Betis.
They’ve created extra xG than their opponents on eight events this season with out successful a recreation. That clearly doesn’t replicate very effectively on their capacity to complete possibilities, however they’ve not been helped by the harm issues of maybe their most scientific ahead Luis Suarez who hasn’t been match sufficient to start out a recreation since scoring a hat-trick within the 3-3 draw in opposition to Granada in October.
Almeria led that recreation 3-0 and will not have ever actually recovered from the psychological blow of failing to win it.
A tremendous comeback hardly acted as a springboard for Granada both although. Whereas they’d maintain Barcelona to a 2-2 draw the next weekend on an evening when Bryan Zaragoza was nearly unplayable, a run of only one level from 5 video games adopted because the lights went out on Paco Lopez.
A few of Granada’s underlying numbers are additionally not horrible. They’ve scored fewer objectives than their xG tally of 29.2 and have conceded seven greater than their xGA of 42.0. Nonetheless even permitting for that, they nonetheless rank as one of many three worst groups by way of xG Distinction, albeit with barely higher tallies than Cadiz and Las Palmas with the latter by far the most important xG over-performers in Spain this season.
Is there any hope for both?
There are actually shades of the Levante facet that went 27 video games and not using a win in LaLiga between 2021 and 2022 about what’s occurring with the division’s present backside two and notably Almeria whose winless streak now spans 28 matches together with their remaining three video games of final time period.
That was a Levante squad that had some gifted gamers with the likes of Jose Luis Morales, Jorge de Frutos, Enis Bardhi, Jose Campaña and Roger Marti making certain they carried a objective risk. But it was additionally one which simply appeared to neglect the best way to win soccer matches.
By the point Levante lastly ended their winless streak on the twenty eighth time of asking in January of the 2021/22 season, the writing was already largely on the wall. The Valencian facet really went on to win eight instances within the second half of that marketing campaign, however nonetheless went down with 35 factors.
Their restoration may provide a tiny little bit of hope to Almeria and Granada. If they will solely cease the rot and put three factors on the board, extra alternatives to win video games might quickly comply with, notably within the remaining weeks when up in opposition to groups with little left to play for.
The way in which issues are shaping up, 35 factors may even be sufficient for survival this time period with fourth backside Celta Vigo at present solely on 20 factors themselves from 25 video games.
Cadiz are third backside and winless for the reason that first day of September and are trying fairly determined. They’ve scored simply 15 objectives, by far the worst report within the division and so far as eye checks go, they appear and feel just like the worst workforce on this league proper now.
That serves up a glimmer of hope, no less than for Granada who’d be proper again within the combine may they one way or the other spring back-to-back victories collectively, a lot simpler stated than completed whenever you’ve solely gained twice all season. Their followers haven’t given up, however they’re operating out of time if there’s going to be any sort of nice escape act.
For Almeria although, they’d must take greater than two factors per recreation from right here on in simply to achieve 35 factors. Even in a world the place they all of the sudden begin changing possibilities and shutting video games out, that appears effectively past the realm of chance.
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